18 March 2013

In recent years, the rapid development of China's civil aviation industry, fleet as the core resources of the civil aviation enterprises have gradually undergoing important changes. This paper reviews the trends of the industry, fleet size, model structure, analysis of the impact of the transport market capacity needs, and hope to be able to grasp the trend of the development of the civil aviation fleet.

First, the size of the fleet: the steady development, the growth rate dropped

1, the scale of development: near the end of the year 2000

"15" since China's civil aviation industry will maintain the steady development of the industry-wide total transport turnover achieved an average annual growth rate of 15.1%. The total number of transport fleet by 527 of the "15" initially, the rapid development of 1942 to the end of 2012, an increase of 2.7 times in twelve years.

2, the speed of development: resource constraints, the growth rate down

During the Tenth Five-Year Plan "period, the transport fleet of the industry average annual growth rate of 10.4% in the subsequent five years, we have accelerated the pace of expansion and capacity growth reached a historical high of 13.0%. However, the rapid development of the civil aviation industry has brought the airspace resources, personnel strength, infrastructure construction, and other critical resources is difficult to keep up with the rapid development of industry. 2010 "8.24" Yichun crash triggered a new round of security for rectification of the industry, the Civil Aviation Authority of by strictly controlling capacity growth, strict market access and other measures to strengthen industry regulation. Affected aircraft growth in 2011 and 2012 respectively only 10.2% and 10.8%, respectively, compared to 12.3% in 2010, significantly down. In the next few years, the Bureau and the airlines, airports are all sorts of efforts, airspace, the captain, hub airports and other key resources shortage is still difficult to fundamentally alleviated the aircraft introduction will continue to be strictly controlled, the domestic fleet is expected to remain more steady trend.

Second, the model structure is quietly changing

1, models classified the share: the difficult situation of the regional jets, narrow-body aircraft heady.

Narrow-body aircraft as the absolute main, will dominate for a long time: domestic 600-3000 km segment accounted for 87.3% of the total number of the segments (compared to the "Eleventh Five-Year" growth by 0.3 percentage points), the day one-way passenger 50-500 flights The segment also accounted for 52% (compared to the "11th Five-Year growth of 6%), which indicates that the market is growing demand for narrow-body aircraft. "15" since the proportion of narrow-body aircraft fleet in the entire industry by 68.1% up to 76.9%. Expected in the next few years, the share of narrow-body aircraft will continue to maintain a high level.

Widebody slow growth can be expected in the future: In recent years, the domestic market demand continues strong, leading domestic airlines break new soil is obviously insufficient power to enter the international market, weak inputs in remote international routes. Especially during the economic crisis, weak international demand and fierce competition, oversupply, became the airline's widebody burden. Affected widebody accounted for by the "15" initially 14.8% decline to 9.1% in 2012, growth is relatively slow.

However, the moment of hub airports in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other saturated and flight congestion widebody come into play, the CAA also explicitly require airlines to try to arrange large seat aircraft to fly hub routes. With the deepening of civil aviation strategy of strengthening the airline practice the "globalization strategy", "flying out" vigorously expand the international market is quite optimistic about the future prospects of the widebody.

Regional jets accounted decline, the slow development of feeder markets: regional aviation was the strong support of national policy, but because of the geographical distribution of the geographical structure of the domestic tourists and domestic economic development, serious imbalance, a small population of small and medium-sized cities, less income, market The lack of demand, the more slowly over the past dozen years to the development of China's regional aviation. Accordingly, the market share of the regional jets from 15% in 2001 to 8.7% currently. Although the urbanization process in China will continue to promote in the future, but the gap between the rich and the poor in urban and rural areas in a short period of time is still hard to significantly improve the weak market demand for the rapid development of the inability to support the regional aviation.

Cargo aircraft in recent years rapidly operating pressure is difficult to ease: in recent years, countries successively introduced policies to encourage freight aviation development and market prospects optimistic estimated Yangtze River, East China Sea, Air, Emerald Air China, Great Wall Airlines, Galaxy Airlines, SF Express Airlines, the Friends and the Road pass, long queue and aviation has set up a number of cargo airlines, and went on a massive introduction of all-cargo aircraft. Since 2000, a steady increase in the proportion of all-cargo aircraft, gradually increase from 2.1% to 5.4% in 2012. However, did not last long, the global air cargo market has suffered many catastrophe by the global economic crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis remains in the doldrums in recent years. In addition, the small scale of China Cargo Airlines, weak competitiveness, industry-wide cargo aircraft only hundreds of planes, less than FedEx sixth. In recent years, the market downturn, the competition is not following the lead of the air cargo industry-wide losses, emerald Galaxy has even entered bankruptcy liquidation. The air cargo industry is facing a double plunder of the macro-economic situation and foreign competitors erode market outlook is not optimistic.

2, the models share: B737, A320 rival, A330, E145/190 segments champion

With exit of domestic McDonnell models, domestic narrowbody only B737 series, B757 and A320 series of three models. Which, since Airbus to enter China since 1987, initiated on the the original thriving of Boeing challenges A320 series narrow-body aircraft in the domestic market share from 18.4% in 2000, surging to 47.3% (only 2.3 lower than the Boeing percentage points), successfully occupy half. Addition, B757 as previous generation models, due to economic and maintenance reasons, discontinued in 2005, in the narrow-body market share fell to 3.1% from 13.4% in the beginning of the period. Airbus aircraft in the domestic widebody market, holds 69.2% of the shares, of which only the A330 series occupies a 55.8% share, far ahead of Boeing; regional jets, Embraer E190 and E145 firmly occupy dominant position.

3, the share of manufacturers: Airbus catch up with Boeing, the formation of oligopolies

At present, the global civil aircraft manufacturer four: Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier of Canada and Brazil aviation industry. Since the global volume of orders for Airbus in 1999 for the first time after more than Boeing, Boeing, Airbus planes hegemony, the oligopolistic competitive landscape further established. Bombardier and Embraer is another way to CS100/300 and E190/195, regional aircraft and business jet market leader, actively to the 120-level narrow-body aircraft market penetration.

In the Chinese market, Boeing, Airbus oligopoly of the same increasingly solid, small and medium-sized manufacturers are struggling. "Tenth Five-Year of early Boeing and Airbus market share of approximately 85.0% (which Boeing has an absolute advantage, occupying 65% of market share), the remaining 15% of the market by British (BAE146), Germany (Donier328,,), the former Soviet Union (TU154, IL-86) and other European manufacturers and XAC (op -7, transportation -8 Xinzhou 60) occupy. After more than ten years of development, the United Kingdom, Germany, the former Soviet Union aircraft has exited the Chinese market, Boeing's market share continues to be eroded by Airbus, has dropped to 46.6%, Airbus market share climbed to 44.7% from 18.0%, with Boeing rival . As B737max R & D and A320neo models, future Boeing, Airbus will compete in the Chinese market is becoming increasingly fierce. In addition, in the market of regional jets, Embraer, with the good performance of the E145 and E190 have been accounted for 5.9% of the market share; Bombardier's CRJ Series has not been the domestic market fully accepted, the market share shrank to 1.1%. Orders from the current understanding of the situation, Embraer lead in China will be further expanded.

Third, each airline fleet share

(Airline statistics caliber: 1) China Southern Airlines to contain China Southern shares and Chongqing Airlines; 2) China Eastern Airlines with China Eastern shares, Shanghai Airlines, United Airlines; 3) HNA HNA-containing shares, the new China Airlines, Grand China Changan Airlines, Western Airlines, Lucky Airlines, Tianjin Airlines and the capital flight. )

 
1, the three aircraft steady growth, fleet share slipped slightly

Country southeast of the three aircraft in the past ten years, capacity growth is more robust, the average annual capacity increase of 9.3%, 9.3% and 8.1%, respectively, were lower than the industry average, the size of its fleet in the accounting industry share by 2001 70% to 57.8%. Which, after the merger of China Eastern Airlines and Shanghai Airlines, the fleet size of 416, surpassing China Southern Airlines ranks first in the industry. In addition, the surface three aircraft fleet share decreased, but if you count their subsidiary company and over the past decade annexation of Shenzhen Airlines, Shanghai Airlines, Shandong Airlines, increasing its control of the market. The past two years, the main focus of the three aircraft in the optimization of the model structure, the elimination of old capacity.

2 medium-sized airport development different

The original smallest in the medium-sized airlines ZH 2008 to accelerate the aircraft the introduction of speed, with an average annual growth rate of 21.7%, the current fleet size has exceeded Xiamen Airlines, Sichuan Airlines and Shandong Airlines ranked industry, however, despite the rapid development, but succumbed to the merger's fate. Past decade, Sichuan Airlines fleet average annual growth rate of 15.3%, has been upgraded to 1.2 percentage points to 3.7% of the size of the fleet in the industry, the past two years, more speed development; Shandong Airlines, an average annual increase of the capacity of more than ten years speed to 11.8%, below the industry average (12.6%), only 3.3% of the size of its fleet in the industry, little change compared with ten years ago. Xiamen Airlines from 2000 to 2008 the average annual fleet growth of 10.1%, slower growth, not only lagged behind the other medium-sized airport, has significantly lagged behind the industry average, the intention to accelerate the pace of expansion since 2009, the average annual growth rate of the fleet increased to 16.4% fleet share increased to 4.4%.

3, small companies Ebb Tide

The camp mainly to the newly established private companies, Ebb Tide, the development of different. East Star Operating poor bankruptcy liquidation, Eagle Alliance, the Northeast was forced to accept the state-owned incorporated Okay, China is still struggling, and the Spring and Autumn Period, auspicious Airlines to maintain the momentum of rapid development, established only seven years fleet scale already reached the 34,29 frame. At present, the the small airline attendant fleet size 298, accounting for 10.5%.

In summary, the fleet in recent years, industry has always maintained a high growth, and still maintain double-digit growth since the "12th Five-Year". However, with the economic weakness in Europe and America, the weakening domestic economy, the industry load factor has been for 13 consecutive months presents a year-on-year negative growth, supply and demand reversal increasingly uncertain. I hope the airlines can be in-depth study of the market, airline demand, the pace of development of rational planning fleet, the science accurately select models, to build a fleet of the core strengths of the company's continued profitability.